“We all try to take actions that will lead to probabilistically improved outcomes in the future, and that both motivates us today and makes us feel better,” Parker explained. To learn more about the planning fallacy, how pervasive it is, and how to possibly overcome it, I reached out to expert researchers Filippos Papakonstantinou (The Business School, King’s College London) and Jonathan Parker (MIT Sloan School of Management), who published a paper on misplanning, procrastination, and commitment with Markus Brunnermeier of Princeton University. (Tversky had passed away and the award isn’t given posthumously.) In 2002, Kahneman received the Nobel Memorial Prize in Economic Sciences for their research. This can be explained by our optimism bias - our natural tendency to believe that the future will somehow be better than the past.īoth terms (“planning fallacy” and “optimism bias”) were coined by psychologists Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky in 1979, whose work gave rise to the field of behavioral economics. Research shows that we often underestimate the time and obstacles involved in completing a task even when it directly contradicts our past experiences. But because we tend to underestimate how long it will take to complete a task, along with any associated risks and unanticipated costs, we unwittingly place ourselves in last-minute, or worse, past-deadline scenarios. Postponing work doesn’t seem disastrous, at first. Minor (or even major) delays aren’t factored in. The planning fallacy starts with wishful thinking. This is a phenomenon called the planning fallacy, and it happens to professionals at all levels and in every occupation. Why do so many of us fall into this trap? Our perceptions of our available time, our abilities, and any roadblocks we may hit are greatly skewed. No one intentionally sets out on a new project thinking it’s NOT going to go as planned - and yet it happens again and again. Before you hit the snooze button and let your cortisol levels fall, you need to get to the bottom of this career-disrupting phenomenon - or you’ll be doomed to repeat it. What a relief - and now you can sleep in!īut wait. Now picture this: That due date is a month in the future. You envision your boss shaking their head, arms folded in disapproval, and wince. You definitely need more time to work on this. That long-awaited report you’ve been chipping away at - ever so slowly - is due in three days.Ī cold sweat settles on your skin as you sit down to crank out a report that will probably fall short of everyone’s expectations. Imagine: You wake up one morning, and your head pops off the pillow in a panic. And you’ll be equipped to develop a suitable backup plan as a preventative measure. By doing so, you’ll be better able to foresee potential (if unlikely) issues. Assume the worst: Start by imagining what will go wrong before it actually does.To ensure a more realistic deadline, take your original estimate and increase it by 25%. Schedule buffer time: Keep in mind that there will always be factors outside of your control, and moreover, you may very well be overestimating your capabilities.For example, gather all the resources you need to finish your work offline, then ask your roommate or partner to disable the WiFi and to not reinstate the connection until you emerge from your desk. Commit early and publicly: Give yourself a little bit of external commitment pressure in order to not leave all of your work to the last minute.Take the outside view: This is grounded in objectivity, data, and statistics, not our own experience or personal biases. The next time you find yourself struggling to estimate, ask: How much time and effort have similar tasks required in the past?.What can we do along the way to keep us on target and help us meet our goals? This is a phenomenon called the planning fallacy and it happens to professionals at all levels and in every occupation. Our perceptions of our available time, our abilities, and any roadblocks we may hit are greatly skewed. Did it take you around the time you’d estimated? Probably not.
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